Data Says Bitcoin Has Begun Its Most Bullish Month Historically
Bitcoin price is trading around $28,000, holding relatively stable after a large move upward in Q1 2023 from 2022 lows.
Not only is a new quarter beginning, but BTCUSD has entered its most bullish month in its history, according to data.
Historical April Bitcoin Performance Is No Joke
According to seasonal analysis and serial correlation, BTCUSD has typically been stronger in April than any other month out of the year. There is no telling why this phenomenon occurs, but should the trend continue, Bitcoin could be on its way to kicking off a more significant bull trend.
The below table highlights April performance each year, since BTC had a price to trade at. The data begins with April 2011, which saw more than 343% in growth in the nascent digital currency.
|Year||April Percentage Change|
This represents a total April return of 537.94%, or an average of
44.83% upside in the month over the years. This even includes bear market data, such as the 17% decline in 2022.
In finance, performance often recurs with unusually specific timing. The phenomenon called the January Effect, for example, sees a sharp increase in the valuations of small cap stocks and altcoins.
Bitcoin has also historically topped in November or December, so why couldn’t major bull movements happen in April? Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but history does often rhyme.
BTCUSD Analysis: April Showers May Bring A 44% Price Increase
A 44% move in BTCUSD would take the top cryptocurrency above $40,000 for the first time since –– interestingly enough –– last April 2022. That month the cryptocurrency market fell be 17%, breaking below descending support.
The breakdown below the support trend line resulting in a dramatic fall further, to the tune of an additional 46% in the two months to follow. BTCUSD dropped a full 58% from the April 2022 close until the current bottom set in November.
Since November, Bitcoin has risen by nearly 80%, and another 44% on top of that would mean BTC doubled in value from the bottom in November, to the end of this month. But only if BTCUSD adds that average to the current price.
Will April fool the market with its bullish data and pull the rug? Or will the recurrence have enough credence to result in a massive rally?
— Tony "The Bull" (@tonythebullBTC) April 3, 2023