Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is A Retracement To $25,000 Likely?

0 7

Despite the relative performance of altcoins in 2023, Bitcoin has seen a significant 75% bullish rally since the beginning of the year. However, Bitcoin’s price has been unable to surpass the resistance level of $30,000 for a week, and this has stirred a technical belief that there is a possibility of a retracement streak toward the medium-term support level of $25,000.

Is Bitcoin’s Rally Losing Steam At $30,000? 

The annual upward movement in the price of Bitcoin, fueled by the banking crisis in March, may be hitting a roadblock at the $30,000 resistance level. To assess the underlying dynamics of BTC, we need to look at an extended chart, which provides a longer-term perspective spanning several weeks.

Bitcoin weekly chart shows a steep decline from $30.000 to $27,000: source @TradingView

knife

Historically, the bullish reversals in this time frame have shown a well-defined chart structure, with phases of bullish impulses followed by periods of sideways transitions.

Related Reading: Ethereum (ETH) Drops 11%, Sheds All Gains From Shanghai Rally

The recent bullish reversal in the last quarter of 2022, followed by the rebound from $20,000 that kickstarted the current rally, was preceded by a notable bullish momentum divergence (as indicated by the RSI technical indicator) from the oversold zone.

Bitcoin Could Hit The $25,000 Support Level In Coming Days

The RSI indicator has entered the technical overbought zone as BTC approached the $30,000 resistance level. The overall chart pattern resembles that of August 2020, which saw a retracement from $12,000 to $9,500 before the subsequent bull run starting in October 2020.

Bitcoin price appears to be heading for a major price correction: source @tradingview

Considering chartist probabilities, the scenario of a retracement towards the major support at $25,000 has gained in probability. Therefore, preserving the $25,000 support level would be a key factor in invalidating the bullish trend in 2023. This retracement scenario could be triggered by a break of the short-term support at $28,800; the upper part of the bearish gap opened on Monday, June 13, 2022.

Related Reading: China Is Fast Losing Money: Their Bitcoin Stash Just Fell By $388 Million

The market is on a precarious edge following a significant session of long position liquidations. To avoid a potential return to $25,000, the market would need to bounce convincingly off the $28,800 level and break above the intermediate resistance at $29,500 to signal renewed bullish momentum. The situation remains fluid, and further price action will provide more insights into the direction of BTC’s price movement.

The Impact Of Interest Rates And US Dollar On Bitcoin’s Technical Analysis 

Bitcoin is currently at a crucial chart juncture, and the market is expected to decide in the coming hours. This decision is likely to be influenced by two key factors from the inter-asset class dynamics: the trend of market interest rates and the behavior of the US dollar on the Forex, which has returned to its annual low and is acting as a support level. 

US Dollar Index is currently hovering around a yearly low price: source @TradingView

If there is a continuation of the rebound in rates and a breakout of support on the US dollar, it may negatively impact Bitcoin’s price and increase the likelihood of a decline toward $25,000. On the other hand, if there is a cessation of the rebound in rates and the US dollar support level holds, it may counter the scenario of a decline toward $25,000. The market will ultimately determine which direction Bitcoin takes.

(This is not financial advice and is the observation of the author. Featured Image from iStock, charts from TradingView.com)

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 63,778.09
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,409.86
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 569.63
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 156.10
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,408.47
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.571693
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 7.34
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.122748
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.439109
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.134025
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000019
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 27.48
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 63,845.11
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 6.32
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 14.14
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 383.66
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 6.12
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.08
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 5.85
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 73.09
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,557.42
matic-network
Polygon (MATIC) $ 0.53497
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000012
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 9.57
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.178493
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 1.39
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 23.40
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.01
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 6.88
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.10609
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 159.99
maker
Maker (MKR) $ 2,921.75
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.076049
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 1.84
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.031815
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.094079
render-token
Render (RNDR) $ 6.45
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 42.25
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 6.46
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 4.39
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.757143
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.743365
injective-protocol
Injective (INJ) $ 23.28
immutable-x
Immutable (IMX) $ 1.46
dogwifcoin
dogwifhat (WIF) $ 2.19
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 0.844304
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 290.69
renzo-restaked-eth
Renzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 3,468.36
the-graph
The Graph (GRT) $ 0.211073
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 1.00
optimism
Optimism (OP) $ 1.75
rocket-pool-eth
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 3,823.47
bonk
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000027
arweave
Arweave (AR) $ 28.22
floki
FLOKI (FLOKI) $ 0.000184
mantle-staked-ether
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 3,534.66
notcoin
Notcoin (NOT) $ 0.016004
lido-dao
Lido DAO (LDO) $ 1.77
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 104.47
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.06
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 1.07
theta-token
Theta Network (THETA) $ 1.49
fantom
Fantom (FTM) $ 0.509903
jasmycoin
JasmyCoin (JASMY) $ 0.029528
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 9.68
based-brett
Brett (BRETT) $ 0.136949
thorchain
THORChain (RUNE) $ 4.01
algorand
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.157887
celestia
Celestia (TIA) $ 6.46
pyth-network
Pyth Network (PYTH) $ 0.33436
ether-fi-staked-eth
ether.fi Staked ETH (EETH) $ 3,409.85
jupiter-exchange-solana
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.871952
coredaoorg
Core (CORE) $ 1.32
quant-network
Quant (QNT) $ 78.37
sei-network
Sei (SEI) $ 0.347494
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 1.32
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 7.66
elrond-erd-2
MultiversX (EGLD) $ 35.18
kucoin-shares
KuCoin (KCS) $ 9.62
flow
Flow (FLOW) $ 0.607142
flare-networks
Flare (FLR) $ 0.020638
kelp-dao-restaked-eth
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 3,479.84
bittorrent
BitTorrent (BTT) $ 0.00000090424227
eos
EOS (EOS) $ 0.58491
gala
GALA (GALA) $ 0.023993
axie-infinity
Axie Infinity (AXS) $ 5.88
bitcoin-sv
Bitcoin SV (BSV) $ 43.79
beam-2
Beam (BEAM) $ 0.017196
tokenize-xchange
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 10.76
ethereum-name-service
Ethereum Name Service (ENS) $ 26.86
akash-network
Akash Network (AKT) $ 3.50
dydx-chain
dYdX (DYDX) $ 1.39
msol
Marinade Staked SOL (MSOL) $ 188.30
tezos
Tezos (XTZ) $ 0.812587
popcat
Popcat (POPCAT) $ 0.812888
neo
NEO (NEO) $ 11.23
starknet
Starknet (STRK) $ 0.598013