FOMC Decision Will Push Bitcoin Up Or Down? The $30,000 Question

As the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches on March 22, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $28,000, just below its nearest resistance level. The cryptocurrency is consolidating at a critical zone, indicating the potential for continuing its current trend or a possible pullback to $25,000.

Tomorrow’s FOMC is priced at an 80% chance of an interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps). According to a recent post by the crypto-trading firm QCP Capital, the consensus has shifted to what analysts suggested last week of no hike decision by the FOMC or a surprise cut.

In the latter scenario, QCP Capital believes a rate cut may cause more market panic and lead to a decline in the global financial sector. This may seem counterintuitive, as lower interest rates are generally favorable for the markets and can stimulate borrowing and investment.

However, a decision not to hike rates or to cut them unexpectedly could signal to investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is concerned about the state of the economy and may be anticipating a downturn, causing investors to sell off their investments, leading to a decline in the crypto market and the delay of the next bull cycle for Bitcoin.

Crucial Turning Point For Bitcoin  

QCP Capital sees the next FOMC meeting as a critical point for the markets that could significantly impact the price action of the cryptocurrency industry and the Nasdaq index, which tracks tech companies.

According to the trading firm, the recent rally in Bitcoin’s price has been due in part to the large injection of liquidity into the markets by the Federal Reserve, which has helped to boost prices. However, the firm believes that the “lack of resolve” among Fed policymakers is an even more important factor driving the current rally.

Suppose the Federal Reserve were to adjust its monetary policy to align with market expectations. In that case, it could result in more gains in equities and the cryptocurrency market, enabling Bitcoin to continue its uptrend and surpass the $30,000 mark, which will significantly confirm the bull market cycle. 

Weekly Breakout Confirmed For BTC

According to Adrian Zdunczyk, a Technical crypto analyst, Bitcoin has signaled a bullish long-term pattern, confirming a weekly breakout for the most prominent cryptocurrency in the market, suggesting Bitcoin’s price is likely to continue rising over the long term.

This trend could allow BTC to reclaim the 200-day mean average, used to forecast long-term trends, which has preceded powerful rallies for the crypto from cycle lows. 

According to Zdunczyk, reclaiming the 50-week and 200-week moving averages could hint that the current trend is a strong bullish signal, indicating a high probability of further price increases in the near term. Breaking through these resistance levels suggests that bulls have taken control of the market, increasing Bitcoin’s price, potentially up to the $30,000 mark.

For the analyst, Bitcoin’s price will create a range between $25,800 and $28,700, based on the average volatility of the crypto price movement. This suggests the price will likely stay within this range based on historical patterns. Any “violent” break” outside of this price range could result in a trend reversal or continuation, according to Adrian Zdunczyk. 

As Bitcoin approaches the $30,000 level, the upcoming FOMC meeting could increase volatility in the market. However, the new bull trend appears to be confirmed after an 82% rally from the cycle low, surpassing the next resistance level. This could represent the end of the crypto winter, despite the possibility of future corrections in the BTC price.

Bitcoin is trading at $28,200, gaining a profit of 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Feature image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com